No. 35 | May 2026 | Olive groves and oolivile CULTIVAR ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTIVE STUDIES
CULTIVAR Analysis and Prospective Studies
CULTIVAR Analysis and Prospective Studies ® No. 35 | Olive groves andolive oil | May 2026 (this issue includes the Supplement Olive groves and olive oil– an overview Ownership Office of Planning, Policy and General Administration (GPPPraça do Comércio, 1149-010 Lisbon Telephone: + 351 213 234 600 Email:geral@gpp.pt | Website: www.gpp.pt Editorial team Co-ordinators: Ana Sofia Sampaio, Eduardo Diniz, Manuel Loureiro Ana Filipe Morais, Ana Rita Moura, António Cerca Miguel, Cristina Sá, Eduardo Lopes, Helena Alegre, João Marques, Rui Trindade Email: cultivar@gpp.pt Contributors to this issue Afonso da Ponte, António M. Cordeiro, Asmaa Ben Maïmoun, Carla S.F. Inês, Catarina Manuelito, Diogo Coelho, El Mostafa El Kabous, Elsa Ramalhosa, Fernando do Rosário, Francisco Campello, Gonçalo Moreira, Helena Sapeta, Ignacio J. Lorite, Javier Hidalgo, Lorenzo León, Jaime Lillo, João Guerra, Joaquim Moreira, José Alberto Pereira, José Pedro Salema, José Gouveia, José Pragana, Julia Álvarez, Mariana Matos, Nuno Rodrigues, Nuno Santos, Susana Gaspar, Samir Sayadi, Tawfik El Achchabi, Vasco Fitas da Cruz, Welida Keller Previous editions: https://www.gpp.pt/index.php/publicacoes-gpp/cultivar-cadernos-de-analise-e-prospetiva Published by: Office for Planning, Policy and General Administration (GPP) Translated by: DeepL Translator and reviewed by the Cultivar editorial team Graphic design and finishing: Sersilito – Empresa Gráfica, Lda. Print run: 1,000 copies ISSN: 2183-5624 Legal Deposit: 394697/15
CULTIVAR Analysis and Prospective Studies No. 35 May 2026 Olive groves and olive oil
Contents 7/11 | EDITORIAL SECTION I – MAJOR TRENDS 15/25 | GLOBAL OLIVE OIL CONSUMPTION: TRENDASND CHALLENGES EVOLUCIÓN DEL CONSUMO MUNDIAL DE ACEITE DE OLIVA: TENDENCIAS Y DESAFÍOS Jaime Lillo and Julia Álvarez 27/38 | THE CURRENT STATEOF MOROCCAN OLIVE GROWING AND PROSPECTS FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT SITUATION ACTUELLE DE L’OLÉICULTURE MAROCAINE ET PERSPECTIVES DE SON DÉVELOPPEMENT Tawfik El Achchabi, El Mostafa El Kabous and Asmaa Ben Maïmoun 39/54 | THE CURRENT STATEAND FUTURE OF OLIVE GROWING IN SPAIN SITUACIÓN ACTUAL Y FUTURO DEL OLIVAR EN ESPAÑA Lorenzo León, Ignacio J. Lorite, Javier Hidalgo and Samir Sayadi 55/62 | THE FUTURE OF OLIVE GROWING AND OLIVE OIL: KEY OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES Francisco Campello 63/69 | OLIVE GROWING AND OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION IN PORTUGAL José Gouveia SECTION II – OBSERVATORY 73/84 | THE SECTOR’S PERSPECTIVE Joaquim Moreira, Nuno Santos, Fernando do Rosário and Gonçalo Moreira 85/88 | OLIVE GROVES IN ALQUEVA: SUSTAINABILITY, INVESTMENT AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT José Pedro Salema 89/98 | THE OLIVE GROVE OF THE FUTURE: HOW TO SELECT THE BEST MATERIALS FOR PRODUCTIVITY, SUSTAINABILITY AND EFFICIENCY IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE António M. Cordeiro, Carla S.F. Inês, Catarina Manuelito, Welida Keller, Afonso da Ponte, Helena Sapeta, José Pragana and João Guerra
No. 35 Olive groves and olive oil 6 CULTIVAR ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTIVE STUDIES 99/103 | OLIVE GROVE BY-PRODUCTS AS A STRATEGIC RESOURCE: CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE INOVCIRCOLIVE PROJECT TO CIRCULARITY IN THE OLIVE OIL SECTOR Vasco Fitas da Cruz and Diogo Coelho 105/112 | TABLE OLIVES: CULTIVARS, TERRITORY AND IDENTITY Nuno Rodrigues, Elsa Ramalhosa and José Alberto Pereira 113/118 | PUBLIC POLICIES IN PORTUGAL TO SUPPORT OLIVE GROVES João Marques 119/124 | FROM THE OLIVE GROVE TO THE TABLE: THE EVOLUTION OF OUR DIET AND THE NUTRITIONAL VALUE OF OLIVE OIL Susana Gaspar SECTION III – REVIEWS 127/131 | SUSTAINABILITY OFOLIVE GROVES INPORTUGAL Summary of the study of the same name, by Agro.Ges, 2022, by Ana Rita Moura 133/134 | THE EU OLIVE OIL CONTROL SYSTEM – A COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK, BUT UNEVEN IMPLEMENTATION Summary of Special Report 01/2026, of the same name, by the European Court of Auditors, by Helena Alegre 135/137 | EU-MERCOSUR PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT – IMPACT ON THE NATIONAL OLIVE OIL SECTOR A brief analysis of this Agreement, by Eduardo Lopes 139/140 | OLIVE GROWING IN PORTUGAL – DYNAMICS, TECHNOLOGIES AND RELATIONSHIP WITH RURAL DEVELOPMENT Summary of the study of the same name, by Pedro Reis, 2014, by Manuel Loureiro 141/143 | OLIVE GROWING IN AGRICULTURE IN THE HISTORY OF PORTUGAL Summary of the relevant chapters of this work by Eugénio Castro Caldas, 1998, by Cristina Sá SUPPLEMENT – Olive groves and olive oil - an overview 5/68 | OLIVE GROVES AND OLIVE OIL - AN OVERVIEW Rui Trindade, with the collaboration of Helena Alegre
7 Editorial EDUARDO DINIZ Director-General of the GPP This issue of CULTIVAR is dedicated to the olive and olive oil sector. The recent dynamism of this sector, both in Portugal and worldwide, combined with the hosting of major international events dedicated to the sector in Lisbon, makes this in-depth look at a historic crop – one deeply rooted in the national identity and agricultural landscape – particularly timely. Olive groves and olive oil are closely linked to a native plant of undeniable botanical, agronomic, historical and cultural value to producing countries. Few agricultural crops have managed, over the course of millennia, to maintain such a deep connection with the land, the landscape, food (and other uses) and rural communities. The olive tree has accompanied civilisations, withstood adverse conditions, shaped local economies and become a symbol of permanence, resilience and adaptation. This resilience is, in fact, one of the greatest strengths of this crop in a context of profound climate change. The olive tree’s ability to adapt to difficult soil and climate conditions – particularly in terms of water requirements – combined with relatively simple production methods when compared with other permanent crops, has helped to consolidate its expansion and its continued presence in Mediterranean regions. Olive oil’s strong links to gastronomy, the Mediterranean diet and its recognised health benefits have also played a decisive role in the product’s international recognition and in setting it apart from competing industrial products. Photograph by the author – Traditional olive grove, Foz Côa, 2024
No. 35 Olive groves and olive oil 8 CULTIVAR ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTIVE STUDIES In recent decades, the olive oil sector has undergone a particularly significant transformation. Olive oil has evolved from a product often associated with a traditional image – one that was undifferentiated and, in certain contexts, even disparaging – into a product of high prestige. The image of producers and the regions associated with olive groves has also evolved profoundly. Today, olive oil has established itself as a strategic sector on a global scale, reconciling its nature as an agricultural commodity with a growing appreciation based on differentiation, quality and territorial identity. This transformation did not happen by chance. It was the result of decades of investment, strategic foresight and the ability of the sector’s stakeholders to adapt. The revitalisation of a traditional sector and a product that was historically undifferentiated constitutes a remarkable case of collective success. Investment in technology, mechanisation, irrigation and innovation has made it possible to increase productivity and create a competitive sector. The focus on quality, modernisation of production, technological innovation, internationalisation and brand building has enabled olive oil to establish itself in global markets, whilst simultaneously benefiting from the growing appreciation of Mediterranean dietary patterns and the worldwide demand for products associated with health and sustainability. International trends confirm this trajectory. The global olive oil market continues to show prospects for sustained growth, driven by rising consumption in new markets, the product’s nutritional value and the growing demand for natural and functional foods. At the same time, the volatility of agricultural markets and the effects of climate change reinforce the strategic importance of resilient crops adapted to Mediterranean conditions, such as the olive tree. In Portugal, public policies have played a particularly significant role in this process of transformation. The combination of investment support, farm modernisation, the development of individual and collective irrigation, technological innovation and the ability to attract investment and foreign capital has made it possible to create a more competitive, productive and export-oriented sector. At the same time, agri-environmental payments and support instruments for traditional systems have helped to preserve fundamental aspects of the national olive-growing heritage. It is important to recognise that one of the most interesting developments in the Portuguese sector was precisely the ability of different production models to coexist. Contrary to some initial expectations, the dichotomy between more intensive olive groves and traditional olive groves did not lead to the exclusion of one system by the other. On the contrary, there has been a dynamic coexistence between distinct, often complementary, models. The more intensive systems have enabled economies of scale, international competitiveness, export capacity and technological modernisation. Traditional systems, for their part, have preserved landscapes, biodiversity, cultural heritage, native varieties and forms of land use that are particularly relevant in more vulnerable regions. In many cases, these two models feed off one another and can enhance each other’s value, whether through market differentiation, territorial complementarity or the growing appreciation of authenticity and origin. It is important, however, to recognise and continuously address the challenges associated with the economic viability of lower-yield olive groves, as well as to ensure a balance between more intensive production models and environmental sustainability objectives. The challenge for the future will lie precisely in deepening this ability to reconcile competitiveness, sustainability and the promotion of regional identity. Producing more and better will remain important. But it will be equally crucial to ensure the balanced management of natural resources, strengthen the economic vitality of rural communities and consolidate the international reputation of Portuguese olive oil as a product of quality, culture and identity.
Editorial 9 This issue of CULTIVAR seeks precisely to contribute to this discussion, bringing together different national and international perspectives on a sector that today represents one of the most dynamic, resilient and strategic expressions of contemporary Mediterranean agriculture. The article by Jaime Lillo and Julia Álvarez, of the International Olive Council (IOC, which opens this issue, highlights that the global olive oil market is undergoing a structural transformation, characterised by growing demand, the modernisation of production and expansion into new markets. Despite price volatility, exacerbated by climate change, the sector has been adapting through innovation, a focus on quality and a commitment to sustainability. As the authors note, “olive oil is no longer merely a traditional agricultural product” but has established itself as a strategic commodity in global trade. Tawfik El Achchabi et al., from the Morocco’s Ministry of Agriculture, Marine Fisheries, Rural Development, Water and Forests, emphasise that Moroccan olive cultivation is a strategic sector, essential for the rural economy, employment and exports, which has been supported by policies such as the Green Morocco Plan and the Green Generation initiative. With over 1.24 million hectares of olive groves, Morocco has modernised production and strengthened its international presence, despite climatic and water-related challenges. The authors state that this is a sector “deeply rooted in the traditions of our rural areas” and with strong potential for sustainable growth. According to Lorenzo León et al., from the Andalusian Institute for Research and Training in Agriculture, Fisheries, Food and Organic Production (IFAPA), olive growing in Spain – with a history stretching back more than 2,500 years – has evolved from a traditional crop into a highly modernised sector and a world leader in olive oil production. Intensification, mechanisation, irrigation and varietal innovation have boosted competitiveness, despite the challenges posed by climate change, water scarcity and the fragmentation of farms. The authors emphasise that “the future of olive growing therefore has a solid foundation”, based on research, digitalisation and sustainability. Francisco Campello, of Agro.Ges, believes that Portugal has established itself as a global leader in the olive oil sector, thanks to the modernisation of olive cultivation and a focus on irrigation, mechanisation and quality — today, it is the world’s sixth-largest producer. However, he also warns that the sector faces challenges such as climate change, water scarcity, international competition and market volatility. In conclusion, the author stresses that “the future of the sector will depend on combining competitiveness, sustainability and differentiation”, placing value on innovation, brands and genetic heritage. For his part, José Gouveia, an olive expert and former lecturer at the Lisbon College of Agronomics (ISA), traces the history of the olive tree, from its possible origins in Asia Minor, spreading later throughout the Mediterranean and becoming a symbol of peace, wisdom and prosperity. Domesticated between 10,000 and 3,000 BC, this crop was spread by the Greeks, Romans and peoples of North Africa. Olive oil, defined by the author as ‘olive juice’ or ‘liquid gold’, stands out in the Mediterranean diet for its cardiovascular and nutritional benefits; today it is produced worldwide and valued both for its health benefits and in gastronomy. In the Observatory section, we begin with our now customary article taking the pulse of the sector, this time featuring contributions from Joaquim Moreira of Acushla, an organic olive oil producer based in Trás-os-Montes; Nuno Santos of Casa do Azeite – the Portuguese Olive Oil Association, Fernando do Rosário, from the Interprofessional Association of the Olive Sector (AIFO), and Gonçalo Moreira, from Olivum – the Association of Olive Growers and Oil Mills of Portugal and the Olive Oil Sustainability Programme (PSA). Next, José Pedro Salema, from the Alqueva Development and Infrastructure Enterprise (EDIA), demonstrates how the modern olive grove in Alqueva has transformed Portuguese
10 CULTIVAR - ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTIVE STUDIES | No. 35 Olive groves and olive oil agriculture, covering 76,589 hectares (60 per cent of the irrigated area by 2025. Thanks to irrigation and technology, national production of Photograph by Artur Pastor – Olive harvest, Alentejo, 1950s/60s, Lisbon Municipal Archives / Photographic Collection olive oil has quadrupled since the 1990s, growing by 320 per cent. This development has made the sector highly competitive and professional, placing Portugal amongst the world’s leading producers and exporters of olive oil. The article by António M. Cordeiro et al., from the National Institute for Agricultural and Veterinary Research (I.P. (INIAV), highlights that olive growing faces challenges such as climate change, water scarcity and the need for mechanisation; and that, to tackle these, it is essential to emphasise the importance of national varieties and genetic improvement in order to create more productive, resilient and sustainable olive groves. The combination of genetic conservation, the selection of adapted materials, and digital technologies, sensors and artificial intelligence will enable the optimisation of irrigation, fertilisation and productivity in the future. Vasco Fitas da Cruz and Diogo Coelho, from the University of Évora, state that the olive sector in Portugal, particularly in the Alentejo, has become more productive and competitive, but has also generated more by-products such as olive pomace, leaves and wastewater. The INOVCIRCOLIVE project, a research, development and implementation partnership between multiple public institutions and private organisations, has developed solutions such as composting, soil application and the extraction of bioactive compounds, thereby promoting a circular economy, cost reduction and greater sustainability within the olive oil sector. The article by Nuno Rodrigues et al., from CIMO – Mountain Research Centre, notes that olive growing in Portugal has great economic, social and environmental value, highlighting traditional olive groves and native cultivars. However, these face certain threats due to agricultural intensification. In Trás-os-Montes, sustainable development, combined with innovation and scientific research, is essential for preserving the biodiversity, quality and identity of olive products. The research carried out by the authors highlights the high nutritional value of Portuguese olives. João Marques, from the GPP, points out that, under the CAP, the olive sector benefits from a wide range of support measures, particularly for investment, irrigation and management, which contribute significantly to the substantial growth of modern olive cultivation; however, public policies have also strengthened support for the traditional system through specific agri-environmental measures. Indeed, traditional olive groves remain essential to the landscape, culture and rural sustainability in Portugal, and this support helps to preserve biodiversity, combat rural depopulation and promote high-quality, authentic olive oils; it is vital for preserving a low-density system which, although less productive, must not be abandoned. The article by Susana Gaspar, of the GPP, traces the evolution of olive oil from antiquity to the present day, highlighting its central role in the Mediterranean diet and in Portuguese food culture. In addition to its historical and symbolic value, it highlights the nutritional benefits of this foodstuff, particularly extra virgin olive oil, which is rich in healthy fats and antioxidants, noting its central role in the (new) Food Wheel and the Mediterranean Diet Wheel. It also advocates the promotion of this dietary pattern as a model of health, sustainability and cultural identity.
Editorial 11 In the ‘Reviews’ section, we analyse the following: a study by Francisco Campello for Agro.Ges, ‘Sustainability of olive groves in Portugal – challenges and responses’; a recent Special Report by the European Court of Auditors, ‘Control systems for olive oil in the EU – A comprehensive framework, but unevenly applied’; the European Union–Mercosur Partnership Agreement and its role, particularly in the case of Brazil, in terms of its impact on the olive oil sector in Portugal; a study by Pedro Reis, of INIAV, entitled ‘Olive groves in Portugal – dynamics, technologies and their relationship with rural development’; and, finally, the chapters relevant to the olive grove and olive oil sector from Eugénio Castro Caldas’s book, Agriculture in the History of Portugal. This second sector-specific edition of CULTIVAR also includes a supplement, authored by Rui Trindade with the collaboration of Helena Alegre from GPP, which brings together statistical data on the evolution of the olive and olive oil sector. It begins with a global overview offering the reader a panorama of the sector worldwide, before focusing on the European Union and finally centring on Portugal, with an analysis that is both more comprehensive and more specific regarding the various aspects of this crop in our country. This zooming in on the olive-growing and olive oil sector clearly shows the olive grove as one of the Mediterranean’s principal agricultural landscapes and reveals the impact of the sector’s recent modernisation and increased competitiveness, whilst also drawing attention to the challenges it faces in relation to climate change, water management and sustainability.
Editorial 13 No. 35 May 2026 MAJOR TRENDS
CULTIVATE v.t. TO PREPARE THE LAND AND GROW CROPS ON IT.
16 Global olive oil consumption: trends and challenges JAIME LILLO AND JULIA ÁLVAREZ International Olive Council (IOC) volatility. This phenomenon is closely linked to adverse climatic factors, such as prolonged droughts, extreme temperatures and significant reductions in harvests in the main producing countries. These fluctuations have become more pronounced in recent years as a result of the impact of climate change in the Mediterranean basin. This has led to greater Olive oil is not only an iconic product of our gastronomy, with deep roots in the culture and tradition of the Mediterranean basin; it is also a product increasingly recognised by consumers worldwide. Beyond its cultural and gastronomic significance, olive oil has established itself as a product of growing importance in global agri-food trade, subject to the pressures and opportunities inherent in an increasingly interconnected market. Its current development reflects three major interrelated trends: price volatility, Current developments reflect three major interrelated trends: price volatility, the rising value of the product, and expansion into new markets uncertainty for both producers and consumers, with changes in supply expectations and increased pressure on prices. However, this context of instability has also fostered more sophisticated planning strategies, diversification and risk management due to climatic and production factors; the increase in product value, driven by a preference for higherquality olive oils with added value; and expansion into new markets, which is altering global consumption patterns and generating new opportunities for medium- and long-term growth. A volatile market against a backdrop of structu ral growth The first major trend shaping recent developments in the olive oil sector is the growing market within the sector, reinforcing its professionalisation. This challenge is part of a clearly expansionary structural trend. Over the last three decades, both global production and consumption of olive oil have almost tripled, reflecting the product’s gradual consolidation within the international agri-food market. Production rose from 1,453,000 tonnes in the 1990/91 marketing year to 3,572,000 in 2024/25, whilst global consumption increased from 1,666,500 to 3,215 thousand tonnes over the same period.
16 Figure 1 – Trends in olive oil production and consumption 1990–2026 (in 10³ t) Despite this positive trend, production remains concentrated mainly in the Mediterranean basin, with Spain taking a prominent lead as the world’s leading producer, followed by Italy, Greece, Portugal, Turkey and Tunisia, which play a key role in global supply. This solid structural foundation does not eliminate one of the sector’s main challenges: its high exposure to Source: IOC 2026 The 2021/22 marketing year marked a historic milestone, with 3,414,500 tonnes produced and 3,328,000 tonnes consumed, confirming a trend of sustained growth that transcends the occasional fluctuations of each marketing year. It is worth noting that global olive oil consumption stands at around 2% of total vegetable oil consumption, meaning there is scope for further growth. From a historical perspective, this progress has been accompanied by a profound structural transformation of olive cultivation. At the beginning in the 1980s the global area under olive climatic factors. The adverse conditions recorded recently have led to a significant contraction in world production, which fell from 3.41 million tonnes in 2021/22 to 2.76 million in 2022/23, representing a drop of around 22 per cent. This reduction immediately altered the market balance and triggered significant price pressures. It is worth noting that there had never before been a decline in global olive oil production over two consecutive marketing years, as observed in 2022/23 and 2023/24. cultivation stood at around 7.5 million hectares, mostly rainfed and concentrated in Mediterranean countries. Today, it stands at nearly 11.5 million hectares, spread across five continents. This expansion … production continues to be concentrated mainly in the Mediterranean basin, with Spain taking a clear lead as the world’s leading producer, followed by Italy, Greece, Portugal, Turkey and Tunisia… At the same time, global consumption has not evolved uniformly either. On the one hand, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, we have observed greater consumer interest in looking after their health and an increase in global olive oil consumption, mainly is attributable not only to increased international demand but also to the adoption of new production models, including intensive and super-intensive systems, and an unprecedented process of technological modernisation. The mechanisation of harvesting, the digitalisation of irrigation, the genetic improvement of varieties and innovation in olive mills have transformed a traditional crop into a highly technological, efficient activity focused on distinctive quality. in non-traditional markets. On the other hand, demand had to adapt to the fall in olive oil production and, during the 2022/23 marketing years, estimated consumption fell to less than 3 million tonnes. The reduced availability of the product pushed prices to historically high levels and led to a moderation in demand, particularly in markets that are more price-sensitive and where olive oil is a traditional product for daily consumption. CULTIVAR - ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTIVE STUDIES | No. 35 Olive groves and olive oil
Global olive oil consumption: trends and challenges 17 However, the recovery in production that began in 2024/25 – with volumes exceeding 3.5 million tonnes and a relative moderation in prices – gave a fresh boost to consumption, which exceeded 3.2 million tonnes, with prospects for consolidation in 2025/26. Thus, although cyclical volatility remains a significant challenge, the sector’s structural trend continues to be one of expansion, underpinned by solid foundation of demand, modernisation of production and international positioning. Quality, differentiation and growth in the higher-value market segments The second major trend defining the sector’s recent development is the sustained increase in the average value per tonne exported. This phenomenon is due in part to relative scarcity caused by lower output in certain growing seasons, but also to a deeper transformation of international demand. At the same time, there is a clear trend towards products with higher added value. Consumers are showing a growing interest in premium, organic and origin-certified products, which favours differentiation strategies based on quality, authenticity and a connection to the local area. Designations of origin and quality labels have become key tools for building trust, providing transparency and justifying positioning in higherprice segments. Added to this is the diversification of olive oil’s uses beyond the strictly culinary sphere. Its incorporation into the cosmetics and pharmaceutical industries, thanks to its moisturising and antioxidant properties, broadens business opportunities and reinforces its image as a versatile product with high functional value. This diversification also helps to reduce exclusive dependence on food consumption. The international market not only predominantly purchases extra virgin olive oil (EVOO), a genuine fruit juice which is Consumers are showing a growing interest in premium, organic and origin-certified products… Finally, growing awareness of traceability, sustainability and climate change is increasingly influencing purchasing decisions, espequite different from other vegetable oils, but also demands higher quality, differentiation and the intangible attributes associated with the product. As a result, the revaluation of EVOO has strengthened its positioning as a high value-added product in the global agri-food trade. In this context, the growing interest in healthy lifestyles plays a decisive role. The consolidation of the Mediterranean diet as an international benchmark dietary model, associated with cardiovascular benefits and a high antioxidant content, has reinforced the perception of extra virgin olive oil as a food that is not only delicious but also functional and preventive. This health aspect encourages consumption whilst simultaneously promoting value creation and commanding higher prices compared with other vegetable oils. cialy amongst young people. Consumers demand transparent information on the product’s origin, cultivation and extraction methods, and the environmental impact of production. Once again, olive oil is in a privileged position. The olive grove is a true domesticated Mediterranean forest that contributes to soil conservation, harbours biodiversity and captures CO₂ from the atmosphere, promoting a positive carbon balance of over 10 kg of CO₂ per litre of olive oil produced. This trend has encouraged more responsible and sustainable practices throughout the entire value chain, strengthening the sector’s reputation and consolidating competitive advantages based on sustainability. Taken together, these factors explain why extra virgin olive oil has moved away from competing solely on volume to increasingly competing on value. Its strategic positioning in global agri-food
18 CULTIVAR ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTS NOTEBOOKS No. 35 Olive groves and olive oil trade is now based on distinctive quality, innovation, sustainability and consumers’ growing willingness to recognise and pay for these attributes. Globalisation of demand and expansion into new consu mer markets The third major trend characterising the sector’s current landscape is the gradual expansion into non-traditional markets, particularly in Asia and the Americas. The United States remains the world’s leading importer, accounting for approximately 37 per cent of the global total, and has established itself as a strategic market for the main exporting countries. However, despite its significance in terms of volume, per capita consumption remains moderate: around 1.1 kg per person. In Japan and Brazil, this consumption barely reaches 0.4 kg per person, whilst in Canada it stands at around 1.2 kg. The case of China is particularly telling: with over 1.4 billion inhabitants, estimated consumption stands at around 53,000 tonnes, a figure that is still relatively low. These indicators show that, for the Although per capita consumption remains high in Mediterranean countries, the high price of the product, together with … the recent growth in demand stems mainly from non-traditional economies. time being, only the more affluent classes have access to olive oil, but they also highlight significant scope for changes in lifestyle, such as an increase in eating out and growing demand for fast food, are altering traditional consumption patterns in these markets. In this context, the recent dynamism in demand stems mainly from non-traditional economies. Figure 2 – Global distribution of olive oil imports Source: IOC 2026 Taken together, seven major markets (the United States, the European Union, Brazil, Japan, Canada, China and Australia) account for around 70 per cent of global imports, exceeding 880,000 tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year, which highlights both the growing importance of non-Mediterranean destinations and the influence of shifts in global consumption on the structure of international trade. growth if dietary habits associated with the Mediterranean diet become more established and consumer education is strengthened. However, this international expansion has not been without difficulties. In recent years, the sector has faced tariff pressures and the imposition of regulatory barriers, particularly in the US market, one of the main destinations outside the European Union. These circumstances have forced European exporters to rethink their commercial strategies, stepping up the diversification of destinations and strengthening their competitive position in emerging markets. Figure 3 – Olive oil consumptionin kg per capitaper year Source: IOC 2026
Global olive oil consumption: trends and challenges 19 The opening up and consolidation of new markets in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East has thus become a key strategy for mitigating risks, balancing trade exposure and sustaining growth in an international context characterised by geopolitical uncertainty, price volatility and changing consumption patterns. The ol ive oi l sectorfacing a mor e complex and regulated environ ment In the future, the olive oil sector will have to face significant global challenges to maintain its growth and market position nternational agri-food sector. Furthermore, trade and regulatory barriers will continue to pose a significant obstacle to the expansion of international trade. Customs duties, sanitary and phytosanitary standards, as well as labelling and quality certification requirements, may limit access to certain markets. In this regard, the international harmonisation of quality standards and cooperation between regulatory bodies will be fundamental to facilitating trade flows and ensuring the transparency of the global market. Another key challenge relates to logistical efficiency and the resilience of international supply chains. Reducing transport costs, improving trade The first challenge is to produce more in a sustainable and environmentally sound manner. Olive oil is The first challenge is to produce more in a sustainable and environmentally sound manner. infrastructure and optimising distribution times will be essential factors in maintaining the product’s competitiveness in an increasingly globalised part of the global challenge of feeding a growing population in a healthy and sustainable way, and to achieve this, we must tackle the consequences of climate change. We must gain a better understanding of the relationship between olive groves and a changing environment and promote their adaptation. The mobilisation of genetic resources, international scientific cooperation, public-private collaboration, the diversification of the production regions and demanding market. Similarly, international promotion and consumer education will take on increasing importance. The sector’s ability to communicate the healthy, sustainable and cultural attributes of olive oil will be crucial to strengthening its positioning against other vegetable oils. Harnessing the digital world to promote the benefits of olive oil consumption will help to expand its global recognition. Finally, we must bear in mind that the value chain will play a and the modernisation of cultivation techniques form the basis of our strength in consolidating the growing trend in Another key challenge relates to logistical efficiency and the resilience of international supply chains key role: evolving consumer trends will continue to shape the sector’s development. Rising demand for healthy, sustainable products with production, whilst seeking to mitigate fluctuations between harvest seasons. Fierce global competition will remain one of the main challenges, in a market where major traditional producing countries coexist with new emerging players from other continents. In this context, differentiation based on quality, brand reputation and added value will be increasingly important for competing in the main import markets. certified traceability will force the industry to continually adapt to new global consumer preferences. Product innovation, environmental sustainability and transparency in the value chain will become ever more fundamental pillars to ensure the future competitiveness of olive oil on the international stage. … evolving consumer trends shape the sector’s development.
Conclu sion: structu raltransformation and prosp ects for th eglobal olive oi l market In conclusion, the global olive oil market is undergoing a process of structural transformation characterised by sustained growth in demand, the modernisation of production and the increasing internationalisation of consumption. Despite price volatility and significant exposure to climatic factors, the sector has demonstrated a remarkable capacity to adapt through technological innovation, the geographical diversification of markets and the positioning of the product in higher value-added segments. The three key trends analysed (market volatility, product value enhancement and expansion into non-traditional markets) show that olive oil is no longer merely a traditional agricultural product but has established itself as an increasingly valued commodity in the global agri-food trade. The growing preference for healthy, sustainable products with quality certifications has strengthened its international positioning, whilst the opening up of new markets – not only in the US but also in Asia and Latin America – presents significant opportunities for future growth. However, the sector’s development will depend on its ability to tackle global challenges, notably the response to climate change, international competition, trade barriers, logistical efficiency and the need to maintain effective promotion and differentiation strategies. Issues relating to health and environmental sustainability, traceability and innovation will continue to be key elements in meeting the demands of an increasingly wellinformed and discerning consumer. Thus, whilst the future of olive oil looks promising, it is closely linked to its ability to combine tradition and innovation, maintaining its cultural and gastronomic identity whilst adapting to an increasingly complex, dynamic and globalised economic and commercial context. 20 CULTIVAR ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTIVE STUDIES No. 35 | Olive groves and olive oil
Evolución del consumo mundial de aceite de oliva: tendencias y desafíos 21 Evolución del consumo mundial de aceite de oliva: tendencias y desafíos JAIME LILLO Y JULIA ÁLVAREZ Conselho Oleícola Internacional (COI) El aceite de oliva no es solo un producto emblemático de nuestra gastronomía con profundas raíces en la cultura y tradición de la cuenca mediterránea sino también un producto cada vez más reconocido por los consumidores de todo el mundo. Más allá de su dimensión cultural y gastronómica, el aceite de oliva se ha consolidado como un producto con una relevancia creciente en el comercio agroalimentario global, sujeto a tensiones y oportunidades propias de un mercado cada vez más interconectado. Su evolución actual responde a tres grandes tendencias interrelacionadas: la volatilidad de los precios, provocada por factores climáticos y productivos; el aumento del valor del producto, impulsado por la preferencia por aceites de mayor calidad y valor añadido; y la expansión hacia nuevos mercados, que está cambiando el patrón mundial de consumo y generando nuevas oportunidades de crecimiento a medio y largo plazo. Un mercado volátil en un contexto de de crecimiento estructural una mayor incertidumbre tanto para productores como para consumidores, alterando las expectativas de oferta y tensionando los precios. No obstante, este entorno inestable también ha impulsado estrategias más sofisticadas de planificación, diversificación y gestión del riesgo dentro del sector, reforzando su profesionalización. Este desafío se inscribe en una tendencia estructural claramente expansiva. En las tres últimas décadas, tanto la producción como el consumo mundial de aceite de oliva casi se han triplicado, reflejando la consolidación progresiva del producto en el mercado agroalimentario internacional. La producción ha pasado de 1.453.000 toneladas en la campaña 1990/91 a 3.572.000 en 2024/25, mientras que el consumo mundial ha aumentado desde 1.666.500 hasta 3.215.000 toneladas en el mismo periodo. La campaña 2021/22 marcó un hito histórico, con 3.414.500 toneladas de producción y 3.328.000 de consumo, confirmando una dinámica de crecimiento sostenido que trasciende las fluctuaciones puntuales de cada campaña. Conviene recordar que el consumo mundial de aceite de oliva se sitúa en torno al 2% del consumo global de aceites vegetales, por lo que hay espacio para seguir creciendo. La primera gran tendencia que define la evolución reciente del sector del aceite de oliva es la creciente volatilidad del mercado. Este fenómeno está estrechamente vinculado a factores climáticos adversos, como sequías prolongadas, temperaturas extremas y reducciones significativas de cosecha en los principales países productores. Tales oscilaciones se han visto acentuadas en los últimos años como consecuencia del impacto del cambio climático en la cuenca mediterránea. Por consiguiente, se ha generado Figura 1 – Evolución de la producción y el consumo de aceite de oliva (1990-2026) Datos en 103 t Fuente: COI 2026
Desde una perspectiva histórica, este avance ha estado acompañado de una profunda transformación estructural del olivar. A comienzos de la década de 1980, la superficie mundial se situaba en torno a los 7,5 millones de hectáreas, mayoritariamente en régimen de secano y concentrada en los países mediterráneos. En la actualidad, el cultivo se aproxima a los 11,5 millones de hectáreas distribuidas en los cinco continentes. Esta expansión no solo responde al aumento de la demanda internacional, sino también a la adopción de nuevos modelos productivos, incluidos sistemas intensivos y superintensivos y a un proceso de modernización tecnológica sin precedentes. La mecanización de la recolección, la digitalización del riego, la mejora genética varietal y la innovación en las almazaras han transformado un cultivo tradicional en una actividad altamente tecnificada, eficiente y orientada a la calidad diferenciada. Sin perjuicio de esta evolución positiva, la producción continúa concentrándose principalmente en la cuenca mediterránea, con un liderazgo destacado de España como primer productor mundial, acompañada por Italia, Grecia, Portugal, Turquía y Túnez, que desempeñan un papel clave en la oferta global. Esta sólida base estructural no elimina uno de los principales retos del sector: su elevada exposición a los factores climáticos. Las condiciones adversas registradas recientemente provocaron una contracción significativa de la producción mundial, que pasó de 3,41 millones de toneladas en 2021/22 a 2,76 millones en 2022/23, lo que representa una caída cercana al 22 %. Esta reducción alteró de forma inmediata el equilibrio del mercado y desencadenó fuertes tensiones en los precios. Hay que señalar que nunca se había registrado una disminución de la producción mundial de aceite de oliva en dos campañas consecutivas, tal y como hemos observado en las campañas 2022/23 y 2023/24. En paralelo, el consumo mundial tampoco evolucionó de manera uniforme. Por una parte, como consecuencia de la pandemia del COVID, observamos un mayor interés del consumidor por cuidar su salud y un incremento del consumo mundial de aceite de oliva, principalmente en los mercados no tradicionales. Por otra, tuvo que adaptarse a la caída de la producción de aceite y durante las campañas 2022/23, el consumo estimado descendió por debajo de los 3 millones de toneladas. La menor disponibilidad de producto elevó los precios hasta niveles históricamente altos y generó una respuesta moderadora de la demanda, especialmente en aquellos mercados más sensibles al precio y donde el aceite de oliva constituye un producto tradicional de consumo diario. Con todo, la recuperación productiva iniciada en 2024/25, con un volumen incluso superior a los 3,5 millones de toneladas y una relativa moderación de los precios, ha impulsado nuevamente el consumo por encima de los 3,2 millones de toneladas, con perspectivas de consolidación en 2025/26. Así, aunque la volatilidad coyuntural sigue siendo un desafío relevante, la tendencia estructural del sector continúa siendo expansiva, sustentada en fundamentos sólidos de demanda, modernización productiva y posicionamiento internacional. Calidad, diferenciación y crecimiento en los segmentos de mayor valor del mercado La segunda gran dinámica que define la evolución reciente del sector es el incremento sostenido del valor medio por tonelada exportada. Este fenómeno responde, en parte, a la escasez relativa provocada por menores producciones en determinadas campañas, pero también a una transformación más profunda de la demanda internacional. El mercado internacional no solo compra mayoritariamente la categoría aceite de oliva virgen extra (AOVE), un auténtico zumo de fruta que nada tiene que ver con otros aceites vegetales, sino que además exige mayor calidad, diferenciación y atributos intangibles asociados al producto. Como resultado, la revalorización del AOVE ha reforzado su posicionamiento como bien de alto valor añadido dentro del comercio agroalimentario global. En este contexto, el creciente interés por los hábitos de vida saludables desempeña un papel determinante. La consolidación de la dieta mediterránea como modelo alimentario de referencia internacional, asociada a beneficios cardiovasculares y a un elevado contenido en antioxidantes, ha fortalecido la percepción del AOVE como un alimento no sólo delicioso, sino también funcional y preventivo. Esta dimensión saludable no solo impulsa el consumo, sino que favorece la creación de valor y unos precios superiores en comparación con otros aceites vegetales. Paralelamente, se observa una evolución clara hacia productos de mayor valor añadido. Los consumidores muestran un interés creciente por referencias premium, ecológicas y con certificación de origen, lo que favorece estrategias de diferenciación basadas en la calidad, la autenticidad y el vínculo territorial. Las denominaciones de origen y los sellos de calidad se han convertido en instrumentos clave para generar confianza, aportar transparencia y justificar un posicionamiento en segmentos de precio más elevados. A ello se suma la diversificación de usos del aceite de oliva más allá del ámbito estrictamente culinario. Su incorporación a la industria cosmética y farmacéutica, gracias a sus propiedades hidratantes y antioxidantes, 22 CULTIVAR ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTIVE STUDIES No. 35 Olive groves and olive oil
amplía las oportunidades de negocio y consolida su imagen como producto versátil y de alto valor funcional. Esta diversificación contribuye, además, a reducir la dependencia exclusiva del consumo alimentario. Finalmente, la creciente sensibilidad hacia la trazabilidad, la sostenibilidad y el cambio climático influye cada vez más en las decisiones de compra, particularmente en los jóvenes. Los consumidores demandan información transparente sobre el origen del producto, los métodos de cultivo y extracción, y el impacto ambiental de la producción. De nuevo encontramos los aceites de oliva en una situación privilegiada. El olivar es un auténtico bosque mediterráneo domesticado que contribuye a conservar el suelo, albergar biodiversidad y captura Co2 de la atmósfera propiciando un balance de carbono positivo de más de 10 kg de Co2 por litro de aceite de oliva producido. Esta tendencia, ha incentivado prácticas más responsables y sostenibles a lo largo de toda la cadena de valor, reforzando la reputación del sector y consolidando ventajas competitivas basadas en la sostenibilidad. En conjunto, estos factores explican por qué el AOVE ha dejado de competir únicamente en términos de volumen para hacerlo cada vez más en términos de valor. Su posicionamiento estratégico dentro del comercio agroalimentario global se sustenta hoy en la calidad diferenciada, la innovación, la sostenibilidad y la creciente disposición del consumidor a reconocer y pagar por estos atributos. Globalización de la demanda y expansión hacia nuevos mercados de consumo La tercera gran dinámica que configura el escenario actual del sector es la expansión progresiva hacia mercados no tradicionales, especialmente en Asia y América. Figura 2 – Distribución global de importaciones de aceite de oliva Fuente: COI 2026 Si bien el consumo per cápita continúa siendo elevado en los países mediterráneos, el elevado precio del producto, junto con los cambios en los estilos de vida, como el incremento de las comidas fuera del hogar y la expansión de la demanda de comida rápida, está modificando los patrones tradicionales de consumo en estos mercados. En este contexto, el dinamismo reciente de la demanda procede principalmente de economías no tradicionales. En conjunto, siete grandes mercados (Estados Unidos, Unión Europea, Brasil, Japón, Canadá, China y Australia) concentran cerca del 70 % de las importaciones mundiales, superando las 880.000 toneladas en la campaña 2024/25, lo que pone de manifiesto tanto el peso creciente de los destinos extra mediterráneos como la influencia de las transformaciones en el consumo global en la configuración del comercio internacional. Estados Unidos se mantiene como el primer importador mundial, absorbiendo aproximadamente el 37 % del total global, lo que lo consolida como mercado estratégico para los principales países exportadores. Sin embargo, pese a su relevancia en volumen, el consumo per cápita sigue siendo moderado: en torno a 1,1 kg por habitante. En Japón y Brasil apenas alcanza los 0,4 kg por persona, mientras que en Canadá se sitúa alrededor de 1,2 kg. El caso de China resulta especialmente ilustrativo: con más de 1.400 millones de habitantes, su consumo estimado ronda las 53.000 toneladas, una cifra todavía reducida en términos relativos. Estos indicadores muestran que, por el momento, sólo las clases más pudientes pueden acceder al aceite de oliva pero también evidencian un amplio margen de crecimiento potencial si se consolidan los hábitos alimentarios vinculados a la dieta mediterránea y se refuerza la educación del consumidor. No obstante, esta expansión internacional no ha estado exenta de dificultades. En los últimos años, el sector ha Figura 3 – Consumo de aceite de oliva en Kg por habitante y año Source: COI 2026 Evolución del consumo mundial de aceite de oliva: tendencias y desafíos 23
afrontado tensiones arancelarias y la imposición de barreras regulatorias, particularmente en el mercado estadounidense, uno de los principales destinos extracomunitarios. Estas circunstancias han obligado a los exportadores europeos a replantear sus estrategias comerciales, intensificando la diversificación de destinos y fortaleciendo su posicionamiento competitivo en mercados emergentes. La apertura y consolidación de nuevos destinos en Asia, América Latina y Oriente Medio se ha convertido, así, en una estrategia clave para mitigar riesgos, equilibrar la exposición comercial y sostener el crecimiento en un contexto internacional caracterizado por la incertidumbre geopolítica, la volatilidad de precios y las transformaciones en los patrones de consumo. El sector oleícola ante un escenario de mayor complejidad y regulación De cara al futuro, el sector del aceite de oliva a nivel mundial deberá afrontar importantes retos para mantener su crecimiento y su posicionamiento dentro del comercio agroalimentario internacional. El primer desafío es producir más de manera sostenida y sostenible. El aceite de oliva forma parte del reto global de alimentar a una población creciente de manera saludable y sostenible, para ello hay que hacer frente a las consecuencias del cambio climático. Debemos entender mejor la relación del olivo con el entorno cambiante y favorecer su adaptación. La movilización de los recursos genéticos, la cooperación científica internacional, la colaboración público-privada, la diversificación de las regiones de producción y la modernización de las técnicas de cultivo son la base de nuestra fortaleza para consolidar la tendencia creciente de producción tratando de contener las oscilaciones entre campañas. High levels of global competition will continue to be one of the main challenges, in a market where major traditional producing countries coexist alongside new emerging players from other continents. In this context, differentiation based on quality, brand reputation and added value will become increasingly crucial for competing in the main import markets. Asimismo, las barreras comerciales y regulatorias seguirán representando un obstáculo relevante para la expansión del comercio internacional. Los aranceles, las normativas sanitarias y fitosanitarias, así como los requisitos de etiquetado y certificación de calidad, pueden limitar el acceso a determinados mercados. En este sentido, la armonización internacional de estándares de calidad y la cooperación entre organismos reguladores será clave para facilitar los flujos comerciales y garantizar la transparencia del mercado global. Otro reto fundamental estará vinculado a la eficiencia logística y a la resiliencia de las cadenas de suministro internacionales. La reducción de costes de transporte, la mejora de las infraestructuras comerciales y la optimización de los tiempos de distribución serán factores esenciales para mantener la competitividad del producto en un mercado cada vez más globalizado y exigente. De igual forma, la promoción internacional y la educación del consumidor adquirirán una importancia creciente. La capacidad del sector para comunicar los atributos saludables, sostenibles y culturales del aceite de oliva será determinante para fortalecer su posicionamiento frente a otros aceites vegetales. Engancharse al mundo digital para divulgar los beneficios del consumo de aceite de oliva contribuirán a expandir su reconocimiento global. Finalmente, debemos tener en cuenta la cadena de valor: la evolución de las tendencias de consumo seguirá marcando el desarrollo del sector. El aumento de la demanda de productos saludables, sostenibles y con trazabilidad certificada obligará a la industria a adaptarse de forma continua a las nuevas preferencias del consumidor mundial. La innovación productiva, la sostenibilidad ambiental y la transparencia en la cadena de valor se consolidarán como pilares fundamentales para garantizar la competitividad futura del aceite de oliva en el escenario internacional. Conclusión: Transformación estructural y perspectivas del mercado global del aceite de oliva En conclusión, el mercado mundial del aceite de oliva se encuentra en un proceso de transformación estructural caracterizado por el crecimiento sostenido de la demanda, la modernización productiva y la creciente internacionalización del consumo. A pesar de la volatilidad de los precios y de la fuerte exposición a factores climáticos, el sector ha demostrado una notable capacidad de adaptación mediante la innovación tecnológica, la diversificación geográfica de los mercados y la revalorización del producto en segmentos de mayor valor añadido. Las tres grandes dinámicas analizadas (la volatilidad del mercado, la revalorización del producto y la expansión hacia mercados no tradicionales) evidencian que el aceite de oliva ha dejado de ser únicamente un producto agrícola tradicional para consolidarse como un producto 24 CULTIVAR ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTIVE STUDIES No. 35 Olive groves and olive oil
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