of its agriculture and the olive-growing sector in particular. Climate change will also cause a geographical shift in olive-growing areas. In the medium term, it is predicted that producing regions will shift to more northerly latitudes: in Italy, the number of olive groves is increasing in the north whilst stabilising or declining in the south. Areas where conditions are currently unfavourable for olive cultivation may become more suitable for the crop in the future. Preservationof traditiona l olive groves The olive sector in Portugal faces the strategic challenge of reconciling two distinct production systems, both of which are fundamental to the country’s sustainability and identity: modern irrigated olive groves, which drive the sector’s productivity and competitiveness; and traditional rain-fed olive groves, which, although they have high cultural, landscape and biodiversity value, have low productivity, difficulties with mechanisation and high production costs. enhancing its products through own-brand products and higher-quality olive oils. 5. Strategic constraints for the Portuguese olive-growing sector Despite the success of Portuguese olive growing and the positive market outlook, the sector’s future will also depend on its ability to address a range of structural challenges. Among these, the following stand out: Climate change The prolonged droughts and heatwaves that affected the Mediterranean basin during the 2022/23 and 2023/24 growing seasons — with devastating consequences for production in Spain, Italy and Greece, and more moderate effects in Portugal — served as an unequivocal warning of the sector’s vulnerability to climate change. Scientific projections point to a gradual worsening of these phenomena, with reduced rainfall and milder winters. These changes will affect critical stages in the olive tree’s life cycle, such as flowering, pollination and fruit set, reducing the productivity of olive groves, particularly rain-fed ones. Rising temperatures will create conditions for increased pest pressure and diseases, which have an The olive sector in Portugal faces the strategic challenge of reconciling two distinct production systems, both of which are fundamental to the country’s sustainability and identity: modern irrigated olive groves and traditional rain-fed olive groves… The maintenance of traditional olive groves, which still account for 36 per cent of the national olivegrowing area, will require creating the conditions to ensure their economic viability. The strategy to ensure this viability involves the allocation of support impact on production costs and the quality of the olive oils produced. Adapting to these new conditions requires an integrated approach that includes genetic improvement and the selection of varieties more resistant to heat and water stress, the implementation of precision irrigation or even regulated deficit irrigation (where possible), the use of cover crops, and the application of organic matter and biochar to promote water retention in the soil. In this context, it is important to emphasise the need for Portugal to continue to invest in the expansion of irrigation as an essential adaptation strategy for the sustainability under the CAP and the PDO/PGI certification of the olive oil produced. Such certification is essential for adding value to olive oils from these systems, distinguishing them from olive oil produced using modern irrigation systems, and highlighting their unique organoleptic characteristics, linked to the olive varieties used and the respective production processes. Preserving genethiceritage Portugal possesses one of the world’s richest olive tree varietal heritages, with over 40 varieties The future of olive growing and olive oil: key opportunities and challenges 61
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