uncertainty and pressure on prices. At the same time, climate change poses structural challenges to the sustainability of olive growing, namely in terms of water availability, Over the last decade and a half, global olive oil production has risen from 2.86 to 3.09 million tonnes… This modest growth at a global level masks differingtrends amongst producing countries. as well as some data on the characteristics of the olive groves in each country. Over the last decade and a half, global olive oil production has risen from 2.86 to 3.09 million tonnes, production variability and the incidence of pests and diseases – factors that could significantly affect production in the main producing countries of the Mediterranean basin. This article seeks to analyse the main dynamics of the olive oil market, with the aim of anticipating trends and identifying the challenges and opportunities that the Portuguese olive sector will have to face. 2. Production trends The global area under olive cultivation has been growing steadily, now reaching 11.8 million hectares, spread across 66 countries on five continents1. However, 88 per cent of the global area is concentrated in the 10 largest producing countries, which account for 90 per cent of the total olive oil produced worldwide. Table 1 shows the trend in olive oil production in these countries over the last 15 years, corresponding to an average annual growth rate of just 0.5%. This modest growth at a global level masks differing trends amongst producing countries. Spain remains the world’s leading producer, but its share of global production has fallen from 44% to 35%, with an average annual rate of decline of -1.0%. It is important to note that part of this decline was due to extreme weather conditions — prolonged drought and heatwaves — during the 2022/23 and 2023/24 growing seasons, which resulted in historically low yields, significantly lowering the four-year average under consideration (2022–25). Italy, Greece and Syria also experienced significant falls in their production; these are countries with more fragmented structures, older olive groves and a lower proportion of irrigated land. Italy was the country with the sharpest fall in production, reducing its share of the world market from 16.8% to 9%, as a result of frequent droughts and the Xylella fastidiosa problem and the prevalence of old olive groves that are difficult Table 1 – Distribution of global olive oil production by the mainproducing countries Source: Compiled by the author based on data from the International Olive Council (IOC) and data from Juan Vilar Strategic Consultants to mechanise. In terms of growth, the following stand out: Turkey, which, during the period under review, saw its production increase at an average annual rate of 12.5 per cent, rising from the sixth to the second largest producer in the world, and is now responsible for 12 per cent of the global volume of olive oil produced; Portugal, which recorded an average annual growth rate similar to that of Turkey, with its share World Oli ve OilProduction Average 2007–2010 Average 2022–2025 Country t % t % Average Annual Rate of Change % of Irrigated Area % of Area Hedge or vase Spain 1,264,875 44.3% 1077,842 34.9% -1.0% 32 % 32% Turkey 127,250 4.5% 365,250 11.8% 12.5 % 30 % 27 % Tunisia 150,000 5.2% 306,750 9.9% 7.0% 3 % 11 % Italy 480,000 16.8% 279,356 9.0% -2.8 % 23 % 21 % Greece 313,300 11.0% 251,875 8.2% -1.3% 19 % 25 % Portugal 53,775 1.9% 153,475 5.0% 12.4 % 38 % 64 % Morocco 110,000 3.8% 115,750 3.7% 0.3% 86 % 54 % Syria 140,000 4.9% 114,000 3.7% -1.2% 5 % 12 % Algeria 44,750 1.6% 75,000 2.4% 4.5% 18 % 35 % Egypt 4,875 0.2% 49,125 1.6% 60.5 % 40 % 41 % Other countries 168,950 5.9% 301,975 9.8% 5.2% – – World total 2,857,775 3,090,397 0.5% 29 % 37 % 1 Annual Report on the Situation of the Olive Oil Sector, July 2025, Juan Vilar Hernández. 56 CULTIVAR ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTIVE STUDIES No. 35 Olive groves and olive oil
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