Table 3 – Matrix of challenges, opportunities and strategic direction Dimension Challenges Strategic direction Market and value Volatile prices; bulk weight; international competition Brands, origin, PDO, certification, promotion and new markets Production Labour shortages; costs; climate; water Mechanisation, precision, AI, water efficiency and training Traditional olive groves Low productivity; abandonment; ageing; harvesting costs Land enhancement, PDO, olive tourism, environmental services and specific support Sustainability Regulatory pressure; environmental scrutiny; need for evidence Certification, metrics, monitoring, carbon, biodiversity and the circular economy Reputation Fraud, mislabelling and loss of trust Traceability, inspection, laboratory analysis and transparent communication Governance Institutional fragmentation and insufficient promotion National strategic document and representative inter-professional body Note: Summary matrix drawn up on the basis of sectoral analysis and Olivum’s internal documents. has earmarked 205 million euros in 2026 for the promotion of sustainable, high-quality agri-food products, of which 160 million is allocated to single and multi-country programmes. To be effective, it must reflect the current reality of the sector, bringing together organisations with real influence and representativeness, and act as a platform for convergence between modern and traditional olive groves, olive mills, brands, PDOs, research and public policy. Conclusion The future of Portuguese olive oil will depend on the ability to combine scale with value, technology with the local area, productivity with sustainability, and tradition with innovation. Portugal is well placed to strengthen its position amongst the world’s leading producers, but it must do so by capturing more value at source, protecting authenticity, promoting all types of olive groves and promoting olive oil as a healthy, sustainable and identity-defining food. The sector must act in a coordinated manner: producing efficiently, certifying rigorously, communicating ambitiously, making the most of byproducts, investing in water and technology, protecting traditional olive groves, and using international promotion to reach new consumers. Portuguese olive oil represents an economic, environmental and cultural opportunity for the country. The challenge is to transform this into a collective, measurable and lasting strategy. References CAP 2023-2027. https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/ agricultural-policy/cap-overview/cap-glance/ policy-objectives-cap-2023-27_pt European Commission. (17 December 2025). Record 2026 EU funding boosts agri-food promotion as Commission launches new food campaign. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ ip_25_3097 Alqueva Development and Infrastructure Company. (2026). Report on the 2025 irrigation campaign. https:// www.edia.pt/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Relatorio2025-Irrigation-Campaign-Report.pdf Office of Planning, Policy and General Administration. (2025, 19 November). World Olive Tree Day 2025. https:// www.gpp.pt/index.php/noticias/dia-mundial-da-oliveira-2025 Office of Planning, Policy and General Administration. (2026). Olive oil and olives: SIMA Newsletter, week 18. https://regsima.gpp.pt/regsima/static/pdf/azei_News.p df Office of Planning, Policy and General Administration. (2026). Promotion and information on agricultural products. https://www.gpp.pt/index.php/promocao-einformacao/promocao-e-informacao-de-produtos-agricolas Government of Portugal. (2025, 9 March). Government launches 15-year strategy to ensure water resilience. https://portugal.gov.pt/pt/gc24/comunicacao/noticias/ governo-lanca-estrategia-a-15-anos-para-garantirresiliencia-hidrica Casa do Azeite (n.d). Statistics. https://www.casadoazeite.pt /pt/pt/estatisticas European Comission. (n.d. Key strategic objectives of the 84 CULTIVAR ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTIVE STUDIES No. 35 Olive groves and olive oil
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