Figure 1 − Global olive oil production by marketing year, in thousands of tonnes Source: Casa do Azeite/COI; * provisional data; ** forecast Figure 2 − Olive oil production in Portugal by marketing year, in thousands of tonnes Source: Casa do Azeite/COI and GPP/SIMA; * forecast Figure 3 − Olive oil production in the European Union in 2024/2025, in thousands of tonnes; Portugal: 177 Source: Casa do Azeite/COI and GPP tonnes in 2024/2025, behind Spain, Greece and Italy, with a forecast of 160,000 tonnes for 2025/2026 (Casa do Azeite, n.d.; GPP, 2025; GPP, 2026). This volatility in production has direct consequences for prices, stocks, trade flows and consumer perception. Geopolitical instability, energy costs, logistical pressures and exposure to extreme weather events all exacerbate this uncertainty. For Portugal, the response cannot rely solely on growth in volume; it must combine production efficiency, certified quality, traceability and greater value capture in differentiated markets. 3. Alqueva, irrigation and ‘Água que Une’: productivity with responsibility The growth of Portugal’s olive groves is closely linked to the Alentejo region and the Alqueva Multi-Purpose Project. Irrigation has made it possible to stabilise yields, reduce climate-related risks, attract investment, professionalise farms and enable more mechanised and efficient production systems. EDIA’s 2025 Irrigation Campaign Report identifies, within the Alqueva subsystem, a total irrigated area of around 64,779 hectares, highlighting the scale of the infrastructure for regional agriculture (EDIA, 2026). Water is both a factor in competitiveness and a strategic constraint. The ‘Water that Unites’ strategy identifies the need for integrated, multisectoral, robust and intelligent management, based on efficiency, resilience and sustainability. The Government of Portugal (2025) estimates that our country has around 51,000 million m³ of water per year, abstracts 4,324 million m³ annually,and may face, by 2040, a 6% reduction in water availability and a 26% increase in consumption. For the olive oil sector, this implies increased monitoring, precision irrigation, water reuse, reduction of losses, digitalisation and a rigorous assessment of the added value of water. 4. Enhancing the value of olive oil: origin, certification, PDO and varieties The main economic challenge is to transform quality into value. Portugal has already demonstrated its production capacity and consistent quality, but it needs to increase the proportion of olive oil marketed with a brand, origin, certification, traceability and its own narrative. This enhancement must be based on national varieties, Protected Designations of Origin (PDOs), single-variety olive oils, regional blends, different production systems, foreign varieties The sector’s perspective 81
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