The future of olive growing and olive oil: key opportunities and challenges 59 generally less healthy and sustainable. In terms of global vegetable oil consumption, olive oil accounts for just 1.2% of the total, a share far lower than that of alternatives such as palm oil or soya oil (see Figure 1). This figure demonstrates that 4. International Trade The expansion of olive oil consumption into new geographical areas has driven the growth of international trade, a trend hat has been clearly visible over the last 15 years. olive oil is not an undifferentiated fat, but rather a niche/premium product, when compared with lower-cost palm, soya or sunflower oils, which are refined using chemical processes. Olive oil, despite its unique characteristics and health benefits, falls within the category of vegetable oils, where it competes with various substitutes — generally less healthy and sustainable. The four largest exporting countries — Spain, Italy, Tunisia and Portugal — currently account for 79% of global olive oil exports. Portugal ranks fourth place, driven by a very significant increase in export volume We can therefore conclude that global olive oil consumption is well placed to grow sustainably in the coming decades, provided that production keeps pace with this increase in demand, ensuring a sufficient and competitive supply to meet it. To this end, it will be essential for olive oil production to also experience sustained growth, through the introduction of new production areas and the conversion of traditional, lowyield olive groves into modern, irrigated ones. Otherwise, stagnating production will limit consumption: increases in demand will translate into higher prices, reinforcing olive oil’s positioning as a premium or luxury product rather than an everyday consumer good, a situation that will lead to its replacement by other vegetable oils. This became quite evident in 2022/23, when reduced supply drove olive oil prices to record highs, leading to a sharp fall in consumption. Table 4 – Trends in olive oil exports from the main exporting countries Global Olive Oil Exports Average 2007–2010 Average 2022–2025 Country t % t % Average Annual Rate of Change Spain 702 319 50.5% 903,280 42.1% 1.9 % Italy 309,634 22.3% 321,010 15.0% 0.2% Tunisia 119,250 8.6% 243,250 11.3% 6.9 % Portugal 42,838 3.1% 218,684 10.2% 27.4 % Greece 98,706 7.1% 165,664 7.7% 4.5 % Turkey 21,875 1.6% 119,750 5.6% 29.8 % Syria 19,000 1.4% 46,250 2.2% 9.6% Argentina 15,875 1.1% 26,875 1.3% 4.6 % Chile 3,250 0.2% 16,375 0.8 & 26.9 % France 5,200 0.4 % 12,027 0.6% 8.8 % Other countries 53,293 3.8% 70,760 3.3% 2.2 % World total 1,391,240 2,143,926 3.6% Source: Compiled by the author using data from the COI and EUROSTAT. Table 5 – Trends in olive oil imports by the main importing countries Global Olive Oil Imports Average 2007–2010 Average 2022–2025 Country t % t % Average Annual Rate of Change Italy 511 326 33.8% 502 872 23.9% -0.1% USA 258,250 17.1% 408,250 19.4% 3.9 % Spain 53,781 3.6% 218,705 10.4% 20.4 % France 111,305 7.4% 120,405 5.7% 0.5% Portugal 75,702 5.0% 103,456 4.9% 2.4 % Brazil 48,500 3.2% 81,875 3.9% 4.6% Germany 59,205 3.9% 76,012 3.6% 1.9% Canada 34,000 2.2% 61,375 2.9% 5.4 % Japan 33,750 2.2% 44,125 2.1% 2.0% Australia 30,625 2.0% 34,500 1.6% 0.8% Other countries 296,157 19.6 % 456,301 21.6% 3.6 % World total 1,512,601 2,107,876 2.6% Source: Compiled by the author using data from the IOC and Eurostat.
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