The current state and future of olive growing in Spain 41 compared with pre-industrial levels, whilst by the end of the century (2080–2100) warming could range between +2 and +3°C in intermediate scenarios (SSP2–4.5), and exceed +5°C in highemission scenarios (SSP5-8.5). This increase will be higher than the global average and will result in greater frequency, duration and intensity of heatwaves. This rise in temperature will undoubtedly be a critical factor in the temporal and geographical distribution of future olive groves, continuing the trend already observed in recent years (Figure 3). Figure 3 – Trends in average temperature in Spain Figure 4 – Staggered flowering typical of areas where the chill requirements necessary for normal flowering in olive groves are not met an overall reduction and greater variability, particularly in the South and the Mediterranean region. Estimates point to average reductions of around 10–20 per cent by the middle of this century, which could intensify to exceed 20–30 per cent in some regions by the end of the century. Furthermore, a decrease in the number of rainy days is forecast, alongside an increase in episodes of intense rainfall, implying a more extreme pattern: longer droughts alternating with torrential events. Source: https://showyourstripes.info/ In this regard, it is important to highlight two main temperature-related factors that may adversely affect the crop: the reduced accumulation of chill units The increased frequency of heatwaves and droughts will have a very negative combined effect on production and quality… The increased frequency of heatwaves and droughts will have a very negative combined effect on production and quality, especially when these due to rising temperatures in winter and the heat stress caused by episodes episodes of extreme heat during critical stages, such as flowering and stone hardening. Experiments in subtropical climate zones, such as the Canary Islands, with particularly warm winters, reveal asynchronous and staggered flowering patterns that impair production and may affect the quality of olive oil (Figure 4). Similar phenomena are also observed in some areas of the Iberian Peninsula, confirming that the effects of climate change are already visible. With regard to precipitation, the models reveal a trend that is more uncertain than in the case of temperature, but consistent towards extreme events coincide with phenological stages of the crop, such as flowering and lipogenesis. This will mean that the effects of extreme weather events will vary greatly, depending on the actual extent of global warming, the specific geographical area and the phenological stage the plant is in. This circumstance makes it even more difficult to predict the behaviour of the olive tree under future climatic conditions. The positive effect of increased CO₂ on water-use efficiency and photosynthesis will partly offset these negative impacts, but will by no means be able to fully reverse them.
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