No. 34 The future of the Common Agricultural Policy 42 ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTIVE STUDIES CULTIVAR of the Trump Administration, is reinforcing a strategy of internal resilience combined with selective protectionism, including agricultural insurance, tariffs, and new technical barriers, in a clear prioritisation of America First, also in the agricultural sector2. In the case of China, the centrality of food security has become a structuring axis of national strategy, systematically reflected in Xi Jinping's speeches3, in which he insists on sovereign It can therefore be argued that the stability of agri-food trade is no longer guaranteed, because it depends on large-scale political choices. It is in this global scenario of strategic competition for food security that the European position becomes paradoxical. While all the major blocs are reinforcing the geopolitical centrality of agriculture, the European Union seems to be reducing the relative weight of the CAP in its control of critical production factors, an idea of "dynamic self-sufficiency" and "enhanced food security" centred on internal civil peace, investing heavily in biotechnology, agricultural technology and internal infrastructure, while actively seeking land and assets abroad. Russia, on the other hand, has turned food into an explicit geopolitical tool, using exports of wheat, fertilisers and energy as mechanisms of pressure and It is in this global scenario ofstrategic competition for food securitythat the European position becomes paradoxical. While all the major blocs are reinforcing the geopolitical centrality of agriculture, the EU seems to be reducing the relative weight of the CAP in its new budgetary mode,l reinterpreting it as a secondary policy at a time when it shouldbe strategic, particularly in the field of security and defence. new budgetary model, reinterpreting it as a secondary policy at a time when it should be strategic, particularly in the field of security and defence. This choice raises an essential question: is Europe underestimating one of its structural assets, precisely when the rest of the world is making it one of its priorities? This text arises from this dilemma. It proposes a reflection informed by the influence, a veritable "food weapon", projected above all on the Middle East, Africa and vulnerable countries in the Global South. Even leading global agribusiness analysts, as highlighted in Rabobank's latest report, Agri Commodity Outlook 2026, warn that climate, financial and geopolitical volatility will limit any smooth and predictable functioning of international agricultural markets in the coming years. history of European integration, its political and constitutional foundations, and recent institutional developments in order to understand how the EU is repositioning itself and what risks arise from the choices it is considering for the period 2028–2034. The question is whether Europe, faced with a more adverse and competitive world, is strengthening the right instruments or, on the contrary, is weakening pillars that were fundamental to the construction of its economic, territorial and democratic model. principle of relying on itself to ensure food supplies for more than 1.4 billion people." During a visit to Jilin Province (Feb. 2025), he reiterated that "ensuring national food security is the political responsibility of large agricultural provinces," stressing that agriculture is simultaneously a central economic, social and geopolitical tool for the stability and resilience of the Chinese state (Xinhua News Agency). 2 Farm Security is National Security: The Trump Administration Takes Bold Action to Elevate American Agriculture in National Security (USDA, July 2025). 3 On the 80th anniversary of the FAO (October 2025), Xi Jinping declared that China "attaches great importance to food security and upholds the
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