No. 34 The future of the Common Agricultural Policy 104 ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTIVE STUDIES CULTIVAR Employment and income: • Employment in the agri-food sector: – 2.8%(corresponding to around 250,000 jobs) • Income from small farms (< €50k): –23% • Income from large farms (>€500k): –6% • Increased risk of agricultural abandonment, especially in vulnerable regions Environmental impacts: • EU agricultural emissions: –3% • Increase in emissions outside the EU: +20.6 MtCO₂e • Reduction in crop diversity and increased intensity on remaining farms Final considerations The Scenar 2040 exercise shows in a particularly clear way that the CAP continues to play a structural role in the economic, social and territorial cohesion of the European Union. In addition to its role in supporting agricultural income, the CAP is crucial for: • maintaining agricultural activity in vulnerable areas where natural, demographic or economic conditions limit market competitiveness • preventing excessive concentration of production in a few regions, contributing to a more balanced spatial planning • ensuring safe and affordable food, protecting consumers, particularly the most vulnerable, from supply shocks and excessive market volatility • ensuring a minimum level of food sovereignty and resilience in a geopolitical context marked by growing risks, trade tensions and climate instability The study also shows that policy choices involve inevitable trade-offs between economic efficiency, environmental sustainability and territorial cohesion. However, the elimination of the CAP appears to be the most damaging scenario, from an economic, social and strategic point of view. This report (re)affirms the CAP as a structuring policy of the European Union, with direct impacts on food security, the territory and the stability of agri-food systems. The challenge for the future does not lie in its existence, but in our ability to adapt it, differentiate it and make it more effective, by reconciling productivity, sustainability and equity in a deeply heterogeneous European framework.
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