Scenar 2040: methodology, policy scenarios and structural implications of the Common Agricultural Policy 103 Employment and income: • Total employment in the agri-food sector: +0.1%. • Employment in crop farming: +0.6% (+45,000 jobs) • Employment in livestock farming: –0.7% (–28,000 jobs) • Benefits concentrated in medium and large farms, which are those with the capacity to mobilise more investment Environmental impacts: • Agricultural GHG emissions: +0.5% (+2 MtCO₂e) • Increased intensity of input use, albeit moderate ‘Environment and Climate’ scenario In this scenario, the CAP is primarily geared towards environmental and climate objectives, with a strengthening of eco-schemes, agri-environmental commitments and support for extensive practices. Impacts on production: • Total agricultural production: –2% to –4% • Cereals: –2.1% • Oilseeds: –2.9% • Fruit and vegetables: –4.3% • Livestock production: –5.2% (cattle and sheep up to –10%) Impacts on prices and consumption: • Consumer food prices: +0.5% • Strong regional heterogeneity, most pronounced in Member States where food accounts for a larger share of disposable income, approaching 1% Trade and self-sufficiency: • Exports: –0.4% (–€821 million) • Imports: +0.5% (+€997 million) • Slight reduction in self-sufficiency (–1% to –3%, depending on the sector) Employment and income: • Total employment in the agri-food sector: +0.65% (+90,000 jobs) • Employment in agricultural crops: +0.8% • Employment in livestock farming: +0.7% • More homogeneous effects between farms, with less of a penalty for small farms Environmental impacts: • EU agricultural emissions: –1.7% (–6 MtCO₂e) • Increased crop diversity on most farms • Increase in emissions outside the EU by +16 MtCO₂e, resulting in a net global increase of +10 MtCO₂e (carbon leakage) ‘No CAP’ scenario The counterfactual "No CAP" scenario simulates the total elimination of support and cross-compliance. Although politically unrealistic, it allows the structural role of the policy to be assessed. Impacts on production and structure: • Total agricultural production: –5% • Livestock production: –7.1% (cattle –13%, sheep/goats –13%) • Utilised Agricultural Area: –2.2% (corresponding to approximately 3.6 million ha, i.e. equivalent to Portugal’s UAA) Impacts on prices and consumption: • Food prices: +2% to +4% • Fruit and vegetables: increases of around +4% • Significant increase in food expenditure, especially in lower-income countries Trade and self-sufficiency: • Exports: –1.8% (–€3.4 billion) • Imports: +3.9% (+€4.7 billion) • Deterioration in the agri-food balance: –€8.1 billion (–12.4%) • General decline in self-sufficiency across all product groups
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