No. 34 The future of the Common Agricultural Policy 8 ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTIVE STUDIES CULTIVAR of much greater differences in the overall CAP budget between Member States, in the size of direct payments per hectare [and] in the ambition of the conditions that farmers have to meet". Yves Madre notes that the European Commission's proposal for the 2028-2034 financial framework introduces a profound reform that recentralises power within the Commission itself, drastically reduces the CAP budget and renationalises a large part of European policies, creating strong pressure on Member States and jeopardising structural policies such as cohesion, the ESF+, POSEI and agricultural investment. Despite providing for almost €2 trillion, funding is uncertain and the logic of national envelopes threatens the EU's political coherence, while agriculture loses its strategic centrality at a time when it should be driving competitiveness and sovereignty. The author warns that this reform "calls into question the democratic process (...) and masks the lack of a vision for European agriculture." Francisco Avillez considers that the Commission's proposal introduces important structural changes and increases flexibility, but also complicates national decisions and could create greater conflict between sectors. Although the budget appears to be decreasing, the use of funds outside the ring-fencing could offset this effect, which, according to the author, means that "only at the end of the approval of the Partnership Plans of the different Member States will it be possible to know exactly whether the nominal values of the CAP budget will be reduced, maintained or increased". For Portugal, the challenges of governance, financing and sustainability can be turned into opportunities if there is the technical capacity and political will to take advantage of the new model. Closing the Major Trends section, Eduardo Diniz presents a comprehensive text in which he analyses how the new European cycle 2028–2034 is being shaped by growing strategic centralisation, the result of successive crises that have strengthened the Commission's executive power and shifted the traditional balance between law, communities and sovereignties, with a direct impact on the CAP and territorial cohesion. In this context of geopolitical competition and asymmetric reindustrialisation, the Union risks weakening the very pillars that have underpinned its democratic legitimacy and its internal market by treating agriculture as a secondary policy at a time when other global blocs are elevating it to strategic priority. As the author warns, the budget proposal poses "a central paradox: by seeking to strengthen the internal market through greater centralisation, the Union risks undermining the political and territorial balances that have underpinned its legitimacy and thus compromising the very functioning of the internal market it seeks to strengthen". Opening the Observatory section, we present two GPP articles. The first one, by João Marques, Cristina Vasques, Rosário Lemos and Bernardo Machado, traces the evolution of the CAP, describing the gradual shift from a model based on price and production support to a system focused on yields, environmental sustainability, rural development and greater flexibility for Member States. The second article, by João Marques Photo by GPP - Brussels, 2025
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