Finding the right balance in uncertain times 117 The first one discusses recent developments in the global economy, highlighting the resilience of economic growth, which has proved to be substantially more robust than initially projected at the beginning of 2025. In the first half of 2025, the global economy expanded more than expected, with a growth rate of 3.2%. This unexpected performance was largely due to growth in the industrial sector driven by the anticipation of production and trade in goods, due to the expectation of higher customs duties (tariffs) imposed by the United States of America (USA), and also to increased investment in high-tech sectors related to artificial intelligence (AI), especially in the US and Japan. This chapter highlights that the announcement of higher tariffs by the US did in fact had a positive effect on economic growth, due to the global increase in the production and exchange of goods and services between countries, anticipating these tariff changes. However, with the effective implementation of tariffs over time, companies will tend to lose their ability to absorb the additional costs, as has already been seen in some sectors, making a generalised price adjustment inevitable. It has also been demonstrated that the global economy is beginning to show signs of slowing down, so the main risks that are already beginning to impact markets are also analysed. The second chapter, "Projections", presents global economic forecasts for the coming years and, in particular, analyses the expected evolution of gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation, as well as trade and investment dynamics until 2026. Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, reflecting the end of front-loading1 and the persistence of high uncertainty regarding tariff policies (Figure 1). GDP growth in the US is projected to fall from 2.8% in 2024 to Figure 1 – A. Evolution of global GDP in the advanced and emerging economies of the G20; B. Evolution of globalinflation in the advanced and emerging economies of the G20 A. Real GDP growth B. Headline inflation Source: OECD Economic Outlook – Interim Report 2025 and OECD calculations (p.16 of the report) 1 Front-loading, in this context, represents the anticipation of production, trade or imports in response to expected changes (e.g. future customs tariffs or supply chain disruptions). Savills. (2025, June 13). From front-loading to FTZs: 7 supply chain tactics and their trade-offs. Savills Industrial & Logistics Research.
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTgxOTE4Nw==