101 TITLE: Scenar 2040 – A Scenario Study on the Common Agricultural Policy AUTHORS: Thomas Fellmann et al. PUBLISHER: Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission DOCUMENT TYPE: Report WEB LOCATION: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC142503 LANGUAGE: English NUMBER OF PAGES: 132 PUBLICATION DATE: 24 October 2025 Scenario 2040: methodology, po licyscenarios and structu ralimplications of theCommon Agricultural Policy* PEDRO MIGUEL SANTOS Director-General, Consulai Reference The report Scenar 2040 – A Scenario Study on the Common Agricultural Policy, published in October 2025 by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC), is a benchmark prospective exercise on the impacts of different strategic orientations of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the horizon 2040. The report was developed in close collaboration with DG AGRI and follows on from the Scenar 2020 and Scenar 2030 exercises1, now incorporating the new governance model for the CAP 2023–2027, based on the National Strategic Plans. The aim of the study was not to evaluate existing policies or propose concrete designs for the CAP post-2027, but rather to analyse, in a quantitative and comparable way, how different strategic priorities of the CAP influence agricultural production, markets, income, employment, the environment and trade, while keeping other macroeconomic factors constant. + On the same report, please see also the article by the author of this analysis, published in November 2025: https://sapo.pt/artigo/e-se-acabassem-os-apoios-aos-agricultores-691b2a35f7bc778b433890a5 (PT) [Editorial team note] 1 https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC109053
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